Imibono emisha engu-10 kusayensi yesimo sezulu

Amasinki emvelo ekhabhoni afinyelela imikhawulo ebalulekile, amunca ukukhishwa okuncane kunalokho obekulindelwe njengoba amashumi eminyaka okuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kwenza amandla awo abe buthaka.

Amaphrojekthi okususwa kwekhabhoni esekwe emvelweni nawo asengozini; ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuphinde kulimaze ukwethembeka kwabo kwesikhathi eside namandla okugcina, futhi nakuba ukuthunyelwa kwezinto ezisuswayo kudingekile, kungase kufake engozini ukuvikeleka kokudla kanye nezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo. Kwethulwa ngaphambi kwe-COP 30, ososayensi baxwayisa embikweni omusha, ukuthi okuhlosiwe kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke kungase kubhekane nezingqinamba ezinkulu.

Yethulwe namuhla ngososayensi abangaphezu kuka-70 abadumile emhlabeni wonke abavela emazweni angama-21, i-10 New Insights in Climate Science yaminyaka yonke (10 Imibono Emisha) umbiko wembula ukuthi ukucwila komhlaba okubuthakathaka, ikakhulukazi amahlathi nenhlabathi eNyakatho Nenkabazwe, kusongela ukunqanda ukuqagela kwanamuhla kwesisi esikhipha umoya kuyilapho kusheshisa ukufudumala kwembulunga yonke. Ngisho nolwandle, okunye ukucwila okubalulekile kwekhabhoni nokushisa, lumunca isikhutha, kuyilapho amagagasi okushisa asolwandle avamile nanamandla acekela phansi imvelo nokuphila kogu.

Nakuba ukususwa kwe-carbon dioxide okudumile kunikeza isixazululo sokuvikela nokwandisa amasinki ekhabhoni, umbiko ugqamisa ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwenani elikhulu lokususwa okusekelwe emvelweni kungase kube nezindleko zokuvikeleka kokudla kanye nezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo, njengoba la maphrojekthi encintisana nakho kokubili ngendawo yomhlaba. Umbiko ugcizelela ukuthi okulindelekile ekususweni kwekhabhoni okusekelwe emvelweni kudlula kude lokho okungalethwa amaphrojekthi amanje kanye nosinki bemvelo. Ngokusho “kwenoveli” yososayensi, noma okusekelwe kubuchwepheshe, ukususwa kuyadingeka kanye nokusikeka okujulile kokukhipha umoya ukuze kulungiswe isifundo.

Umbiko uphinde uthole ukuthi izimakethe zezikweletu zekhabhoni zokuzithandela, lapho amaphrojekthi okususwa kwekhabhoni engasebenza khona, zithathwa njengenye isixazululo esingaba khona, kodwa zibekezelela izinkinga eziqhubekayo zokwethembeka futhi zidinga izilinganiso eziqinile kanye namazinga emakethe ukuze kuqinisekiswe ubuqotho.

Sekuyisikhathi eside sithembele emahlathini nasenhlabathini ukuthi sihlanze buthule i-carbon mess yethu - kodwa amandla akho ayantengantenga. Lokho kusho ukuthi singase silithathela phansi igebe elikhona manje lokukhithika kwesisi kanye nesivinini sokufudumala okuzayo.

USabine Fuss, umholi womnyango ePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research futhi oyilungu lebhodi labahleli balo mbiko..

Isinyathelo esihlanganyelwe se-Future Earth, I-Earth League, kanye ne-World Climate Research Programme, umbiko we-10 New Insights uchitha intuthuko yakamuva kusayensi yesimo sezulu kusukela ezinyangeni eziyi-18 ezedlule ukuya emibonweni eyishumi emfishane, esebenza njengesisetshenziswa esithenjwayo sabakhi bezinqubomgomo. Kuza njengoba abaxoxisanayo belungiselela i-COP30, umzuzu obalulekile eminyakeni eyi-10 ngemuva kweSivumelwano saseParis naphakathi kwegagasi elisha lokuhlosiwe kwesimo sezulu esithuthukisiwe esivela emazweni emhlabeni jikelele. Njengoba umjikelezo wakamuva we-Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) uvela, kanye nokungabaza kwesimo sezulu kukhula, amazwe awakwazi ukuqhubeka nokuhlela ulwazi oluphelelwe yisikhathi.

Izingxoxo zesimo sezulu kufanele ziqondiswe isayensi, futhi I-10 New Insights inikeza isifinyezo esihle kakhulu sezibuyekezo zakamuva zesayensi yesimo sezulu. Le mininingwane ihlinzeka ngobufakazi obuqand' ikhanda bokuthi sisesimweni sokuphuthuma kwesimo sezulu, okusho ukuthi i-COP30 kufanele kube i-COP yokuqaliswa - ngeke sisakwazi ukukhokha izithembiso ezintsha ngaphandle kokulethwa. Ukugxilwa kwabakhi benqubomgomo kufanele kube ekunciphiseni ukukhishwa kwegesi ngendlela ewujuqu, ukuvikela kanye nokubuyisela imvelo, kanye nokuqinisa izinhlelo ezisisekelayo.

U-Johan Rockström, usihlalo-kanye we-The Earth League kanye nelungu lebhodi lokuhlela lombiko.

Eminye imininingwane yombiko ihlola izici ezinomthelela ekufudumaleni okurekhodiwe kwango-2023 no-2024, ngokushisa okudlulele okubeka ingcindezi engakaze ibonwe emithonjeni yamanzi ahlanzekile, impilo yabantu kanye nezindlela zokuziphilisa. Ucwaningo olusha oluhlanganiswe embikweni luveza ukuthi amazinga okushisa akhuphukayo ehlisa kanjani amanzi angaphansi komhlaba, okubalulekile ezifundeni eziningi kwezolimo. Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu nakho kubhebhezela ukubhebhetheka kwezifo ezithwalwa omiyane njengomkhuhlane wodenga, njengoba amazinga okushisa aphezulu andisa indawo yokuhlala yalesi sinambuzane.

Ngemva kokubona ukugqashuka okukhulu kakhulu komhlaba wonke kodenga emlandweni ngonyaka odlule, izinhlelo zezempilo zingaphansi kobunzima obukhulu. Okutholakele okuhlanganiswe embikweni we-10 New Insights kuyisikhumbuzo esiqinile sokuthi akekho ongagonyiwe emithelela yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu - imiphumela yako isemhlabeni wonke, ixhumene, futhi isivele iseduze kwethu.

UKristie Ebi, uprofesa wezempilo emhlabeni wonke eNyuvesi yaseWashington futhi oyilungu lebhodi labahleli balo mbiko.

Ngaphandle kwempilo yomuntu, lo mbiko uphinde uchaze ukuthi ukucindezeleka kokushisa kushayela kanjani ukwehla okukhulu kokukhiqizwa kwabasebenzi, okunomthelela emalini engenayo futhi kuholele ekungazinzini komnotho okubanzi. Isibonelo, ukufudumala okungu-1°C nje kulindeleke ukuthi kudalule abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-800 ezindaweni ezishisayo emazingeni angaphephile okucindezela ukushisa, okungenzeka kunciphise amahora abo okusebenza cishe ngo-50%.

Ekugcineni, umbiko walo nyaka ubonisa ukuthi cishe yonke ingozi enkulu yesimo sezulu isukela kumsuka owodwa - ukwehluleka ukunciphisa ukukhishwa kwegesi ngesivinini nangezinga elidingekayo. Ukuthembela emvelweni nasezimakethe kukodwa ngeke kuyixazulule inkinga. Amazinga okushisa aqopha umlando ngo-2023 nango-2024, asheshisa ukufudumala kolwandle, kanye nobunzima obukhulayo bezinto eziphilayo nemiphakathi yonke kuyizimpawu zokubambezeleka kwesenzo. Umlayezo we-COP30 awunakuphikiswa: isayensi icacile, izixazululo nemikhawulo kuyaziwa, futhi manje yisikhathi sokuletha.

Uhlu olugcwele lwemininingwane eyi-10

1. Ukufudumala kwerekhodi 2023/24: Ubufakazi kubashayeli abangemva kokweqa kwakamuva kwezinga lokushisa lomhlaba buphakamisa ukusheshisa okungaba khona kokufudumala kwembulunga yonke.
2. Ukufudumala kolwandle okusheshisiwe: Ukufudumala okusheshayo kolwandle kanye nokuqina kwamagagasi okushisa olwandle kulimaza i-ecosystem futhi andisa izingozi ezimbi kakhulu zesimo sezulu.
3. Gxila kumasinki ekhabhoni yomhlaba: Amasinki ekhabhoni yomhlaba wonke akhombisa izimpawu zokucindezeleka njengoba iplanethi iqhubeka nokufudumala.
4. Impendulo yesimo sezulu-yezinto eziphilayo ezihlukahlukene: Ukulahleka kwezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuyaqinisana endaweni ephazamisayo.
5. Ukwehla kwamazinga amanzi angaphansi komhlaba: Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kusheshisa ukuncipha kwamanzi angaphansi komhlaba, okwandisa ubungozi kwezolimo kanye nezindawo zokuhlala zasemadolobheni.
6. Ukuqubuka kodenga oluqhutshwa isimo sezulu: Amazinga okushisa akhuphukayo adala izimo ezingcono zomiyane abasakaza udenga, okwenza lesi sifo sisakazekele endaweni kanye namandla.
7. Imithelela ekukhiqizweni kwabasebenzi: Ukwenyuka kwengcindezi yokushisa kulindeleke ukuthi kunciphise amahora okusebenza kanye nokuphuma kwezomnotho.
8. Ukukala ukususwa kwe-carbon dioxide (CDR): Ukukala i-CDR ngokuzibophezela kubalulekile, kodwa ngokugxila ekukhiqizweni okunzima ukukunqanda kanye nokukhawulela ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.
9. Izinselelo zobuqotho bemakethe yekhabhoni: Ukuqinisa izindinganiso kanye nokungafihli ezimakethe zekhabhoni yokuzithandela kuyadingeka ukuze kuqinisekiswe izinzuzo zangempela zokunciphisa.
10. Izingxube zenqubomgomo ezisebenzayo: Izingxube zenqubomgomo eziklanywe ngokucophelela zisebenza kangcono kunezinyathelo ezilodwa ekuzuzeni ukusikeka okujulile nokuhlala njalo.

Mayelana Umhlaba Ozayo: I-Future Earth iyinethiwekhi yomhlaba wonke yabacwaningi abathuthukisa futhi bahlanganise ulwazi ukuze basekele izinguquko ezibheke ekusimameni. Ngokugxila okuqinile ezindleleni ezisekelwe kumasistimu, i-Future Earth ifuna ukujulisa ukuqonda kwethu amasistimu oMhlaba ayinkimbinkimbi namandla omuntu kuyo yonke imikhakha eyahlukene futhi ikhulise lokhu kuqonda ukuze kusekelwe izinqubomgomo ezisekelwe ebufakazini namasu okuthuthukiswa okuzinzile.

Mayelana I-Earth League: I-Earth League iwumfelandawonye wamazwe ngamazwe wamalungu esikhungo kanye namalungu ngamanye, asebenza ndawonye ukuze aphendule ezindabeni ezinjengokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ukuncipha kwemithombo yemvelo, ukucekelwa phansi komhlaba, ukusweleka kwamanzi, nokuvikeleka kokudla. Ngenkathi kubhekwana nezinkinga ezikhona nezivelayo ezidalwe ukusetshenziswa kwezinsiza ezingaphezu kwamandla eplanethi yethu, i-Earth League ihlola ukuthi izinkinga zingalindelwe futhi zigwenywe kanjani ngesenzo samaqhinga nokusungula izinto ezintsha.

Mayelana Nohlelo Lokucwaninga Ngesimo Sezulu Lomhlaba (I-WCRP): I-WCRP ixhumanisa futhi iqondise ucwaningo lwesimo sezulu lwamazwe ngamazwe ukuthuthukisa, ukwabelana, nokusebenzisa ulwazi lwesimo sezulu oluneqhaza enhlalakahleni yomphakathi. I-WCRP ikhuluma nezici zesayensi yesimo sezulu ezinkulu kakhulu futhi eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu ukuthi zingasingathwa isizwe esisodwa, i-ejensi, noma isiyalo sesayensi. Ngokusebenzisana kwesayensi yamazwe ngamazwe kanye nobudlelwano obuyimpumelelo, i-WCRP isiza ukuhola indlela ekuqondeni okuyisisekelo kohlelo lwesimo sezulu nasekunqumeni ukusebenzisana kwayo nemisebenzi yabantu.

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